“Electoral Support and Militants’ Targeting Strategies” (co-authored with Deniz Aksoy)
Assist. Prof. Dr. David Carlson
Department of International Relations
Wednesday, December 2, 2020, 13:30
Topic: POLS TALK
Time: Dec 2, 2020 01:30 PM Istanbul
To request the event link, please contact to the department.
Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often co-exist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this paper, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influence sub-national variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the militant associated opposition party and the nationally incumbent party is close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent. To illustrate this dynamic we use sub-national data from Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants.
David Carlson is an assistant professor in the Department of International Relations at Koç University. His research predominantly involves political methodology, with an interest in comparative politics and international political economy. Before coming to İstanbul, he received his PhD from the Department of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis, under the advisement of Jacob M. Montgomery.His current projects involve the implementation of machine learning algorithms for prediction and inference in political science.