Title: U.S. Grand Strategy in an Era of Near-Peer Challengers: A Granular Theory of Balance of Power
Date and Time: October 13, 14:30
Venue: A-130 Seminar Room, FEASS. Speaker: Steven Lobell, University of Utah
Abstract: Theories of balancing are under assault. On theoretical and historical grounds, realists and non-realists alike challenge the claim that states balance against shifts in aggregate material capabilities. Yet, there is no need to abandon or broaden the concept. The problem is that leaders rarely use aggregate measures of power to identify threats, and they seldom balance against all domains of a rival state’s power; existing theories often miscode cases of balancing as over-, under-, or non-balancing. I advance a more granular or finely-tuned neoclassical realist understanding of power and the balance of power. A granular theory of balancing demonstrates that foreign policy leaders regularly unpack military and material capabilities into domains of power to identify which states, if any, threaten their security, and target-balance against the domain of power. I will discuss several cases that are often coded as instances of under-balancing and demonstrate the leaders balanced appropriately.