Title: Clean Energy, Material Scarcity and Urban Mining
Speaker: Dr. Serasu Duran (University of Calgary)
Date & Time: 25 September 2026, 13:30
Place: EA 302
Abstract: The low-carbon economy relies on critical raw materials for the production of clean energy technologies.The finite and geographically concentrated supply of these critical raw materials may struggle to meet the surging demand, potentially slowing or derailing ambitious clean energy targets. We study two practical strategies that clean energy technology producers can implement to mitigate the impact of material scarcity on their production: (i) Material Reduction, i.e., redesigning products to use less critical material; (ii) Urban Mining, i.e., recovering critical materials from end-of-life products. We build an analytical model to study the strategic investment and production decisions of clean energy producers depending on a scarce raw material, and evaluate them from the perspective of a regulator with clean energy transition goals.We endogenize material scarcity through a capacity constraint on virgin supply for which clean energy producers compete with other industries, and show that a long-term focus on clean energy production favors Urban Mining (Material Reduction) when material scarcity is high (low). Using a social welfare framework that balances clean energy generation, virgin material conservation, and firm profitability, we show that producer incentives to implement material scarcity mitigation strategies need not align with broader clean energy transition policy objectives. An urban mining strategy typically maintains the profitability of the industry with a higher probability. Efficiency improvements in material reduction can lead to a scarcity rebound effect that increase total resource consumption. To align industry incentives with sustainability goals, policymakers should prioritize reducing systemic leakage in circular systems, using investment subsidies as a complementary lever, while exercising caution with material reduction strategies to avoid accelerating virgin material depletion through the scarcity rebound effect.
Short Bio: Serasu Duran is an Associate Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at the Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary. She received her PhD from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Her research focuses on energy-related and sustainable operations management, with a particular interest in how new technologies and disruptions reshape existing supply chains. She also studies sustainability transitions in Canada’s rural Indigenous communities, working in partnership with those communities. Her work prioritizes policy- and practitioner-relevant themes; published in Harvard Business Review and featured by media outlets, including PBS, Forbes, the National Post, and CBC.